Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.570947 3.002440 3.480943 4.050502 4.709586 5.447915 6.337438
2025-12-21 1.870176 2.437848 3.135708 4.054815 5.231634 6.686061 8.618380
2025-12-28 1.559404 2.223598 3.111458 4.380472 6.142802 8.498389 11.880480
2026-01-04 1.276244 1.964572 2.952563 4.465853 6.716013 9.927374 14.846003
2026-01-11 1.072496 1.765236 2.823210 4.544045 7.258451 11.357068 17.992266
2026-01-18 0.906393 1.584590 2.679723 4.559443 7.684726 12.645988 21.081372
2026-01-25 0.768135 1.419476 2.526412 4.522178 8.003380 13.786505 24.065464
2026-02-01 0.623277 1.214246 2.268537 4.260009 7.894474 14.195725 25.871622
2026-02-08 0.524753 1.073880 2.098750 4.120067 7.966490 14.902890 28.256857
2026-02-15 0.457542 0.980465 1.998422 4.088473 8.223069 15.955738 31.378013
2026-02-22 0.422118 0.943883 1.999817 4.249534 8.861276 17.778593 36.146596
2026-03-01 0.373322 0.870514 1.915885 4.225387 9.127461 18.919464 39.732844
2026-03-08 0.327932 0.798626 1.828138 4.189351 9.384023 20.112629 43.662556
2026-03-15 0.291331 0.740409 1.761379 4.190265 9.723770 21.529129 48.264684
2026-03-22 0.282531 0.746443 1.838818 4.525116 10.841230 24.716090 57.033690
2026-03-29 0.258198 0.709636 1.811233 4.612773 11.413470 26.800336 63.668696
2026-04-05 0.236318 0.674896 1.782757 4.693293 11.979569 28.940278 70.700643
2026-04-12 0.213671 0.633734 1.731528 4.709127 12.391606 30.778278 77.267772
2026-04-19 0.191274 0.588877 1.663373 4.670663 12.662801 32.317810 83.320704
2026-04-26 0.162061 0.518625 1.516205 4.400169 12.301889 32.285508 85.541166
2026-05-03 0.141702 0.470511 1.421280 4.255778 12.249576 33.007459 89.735023
2026-05-10 0.127791 0.439456 1.369268 4.223178 12.494308 34.514067 96.131054
2026-05-17 0.121685 0.432126 1.385187 4.389359 13.315388 37.623863 107.124967